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Predicting Divorce

Writer: Thomas Thurston
Thomas Thurston
Jan 11, 2013
1 min read

Updated: Jul 24, 2023

While not “data science” per se (although there could be arguments for and against), in 1992 a kindred predictive study interviewed newlywed couples and identified variables that predicted divorce with 93.6% accuracy (after only five minutes of questioning).


While this study didn’t have a very big data set, the results were statistically significant with the researchers identifying all seven divorced couples out of a total 56. You might have read about this in Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink.  There are a lot of related studies and we felt this was a fun example of pattern recognition as applied to an interesting social issue.



 
 

As bottlenecks move, so does opportunity. Finding them can change where capital is most useful, whether the goal is creating economic value or making progress on something that matters.

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